Fair WARNING!
At the crossroads of Baghdad
By: Art Jannicelli
www.WhatTheHellAmIDoingHere.com

            Yesterday it happened, Rummy's prediction came true. There are Iraqi's in the streets of Baghdad kissing our brave Marines and giving them flowers. While other Iraqi's cursed their deposed dictator and destroyed his remaining icons.
            I for one am happy for the Iraqi people. I hope their dreams of a free and prosperous Iraq are fulfilled. However, I would not call this point in History the beginning of democracy in Iraq. Rather, the Iraqi people have reached a potentially treacherous three-way crossroad.
            Now is not the time to become complacent here in America or Iraq. The Bush administration has opened a Pandora's box in Iraq. If we are not vigilant it maybe opened and handled without the consent of the American or Iraqi people.
            The Iraqi people are in a dangerous position. If the world forgets how Saddam's regime was at one point supported by the US government, history may repeat itself. If the world is not careful the Iraqi people may have their only hope for nation building sold out from under them for pennies on the dollar to international oil interests. There are plans already under way endorsed by the Bush administration, to denationalize Iraqi oil, allowing international oil interests to buy up the rights. If the world allows these things to happen, the Iraqi people will be no better off then they were before the war, and worse off since they will have lost their only cash cow, relegated to a permanent position as the Mozambique of the Middle East.
            So, let this be your fair warning! Iraq is at a crossroads with three possible futures. Down one path is the Despotic Anarchy that has a strangle hold in Afghanistan. If the Sunni, Shiite, and Kurdish people allow their cultural differences to embroil them into a costly civil war, similar to what is happening in Afghanistan, their destiny will be the same.
As American's we also have a responsibility. We must not let the media turn a blind eye to the Iraqi people the way it did to Afghanistan. If the Bush administration moves to invade Syria or Iran (after they have secured and sold the Iraqi oil fields), we must not allow ourselves to be distracted. We supposedly came to Iraq to make it a better place; we now have a moral obligation to see it through.
The second possibility and the most difficult to achieve would be the creation of a truly democratic multiparty coalition government founded between the Kurdish, Sunni, and Shiite people. This will be the most difficult path. It will require the Iraqi people to lay aside blood feuds that have gone on for generations between clans. The Iraqi people must unite or they will destroy themselves.
The last path is the world turns a blind eye to Iraq future and a brutal client regime friendly to US interests is installed. This option will be the hardest for all sides to acknowledge as a very real possibility. If the Iraqi factions cannot form a strong government of their own, it may be decided that what is best for the long-term stability of Iraq and the Middle East is the installation of a government that will be friendly to US interests. To anyone who thinks this is impossible, you don't know your history. Right next-door in Iran the US installed the Shaw for similar reasons, and he is not the only regime placed in power with US support. It is also no coincidence that the Shaw created a repressive regime. A repressive regime is a very good way of securing your power when you do not have political legitimacy; Saddam was in power for 24 years--with some help from the US government--without political legitimacy!
However, should this government comes to pass not only will it re-endenture the people of Iraq, it will also put them at risk of another war with the US should this new government displease the US. There have been numerous examples of this in recent history. Saddam Hussein displeased the US when he called for the creation of a pan-Arab state and the creation of a nuclear free zone in the Middle East (Israel is the only nuclear power in the region). Manuel Noriega was a CIA operative who was placed as president of Panama, and was removed by President Reagan when he stopped following US orders. These are just two examples of many.
              In Common Sense by Thomas Paine, it is argued that for a revolution to be successful there has to be a plan in place. As a people, Iraq must work proactively to form their own multiparty coalition democracy. The Iraqi people must not allow their rich cultural diversity to divide and conquer them the way it has in America (Racism) or Afghanistan (clan warfare). If they fail, they risk trading one dictatorship for another or following a downward spiral to despotic anarchy.
            You now stand at the crossroads. You have been given fair warning. We must unite as a people for freedom. Or we will be divided and conquered, and subsequently indentured. The future is yours for the moment, do not let complacency allow you to miss your opportunity to seize the your moment.